Championship Week 9: A midweek quickie

Just a quick post today with the next round of Championship games being played midweek.
Here's the real life table as it stands after Saturday and Sunday's games:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	9	6	2	1	20	8	12	20
2	Nott'm Forest	9	5	4	0	17	7	10	19
3	Wolves	9	5	3	1	11	6	5	18
4	Watford	9	5	2	2	17	10	7	17
5	Ipswich	9	5	2	2	13	7	6	17
6	Derby	9	4	4	1	17	10	7	16
7	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	13	7	6	16
8	Charlton	9	3	6	0	12	9	3	15
9	Sheffield Weds	9	4	3	2	9	6	3	15
10	Blackburn	9	4	2	3	16	16	0	14
11	Reading	9	4	2	3	14	14	0	14
12	Brentford	9	4	2	3	11	13	-2	14
13	Leeds	9	4	1	4	10	12	-2	13
14	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	14	11	3	12
15	Cardiff	9	3	3	3	12	12	0	12
16	Millwall	9	3	2	4	9	10	-1	11
17	Brighton	9	2	3	4	8	10	-2	9
18	Wigan	9	2	2	5	10	12	-2	8
19	Rotherham	9	2	2	5	6	12	-6	8
20	Huddersfield	9	2	2	5	9	19	-10	8
21	Birmingham	9	1	4	4	8	16	-8	7
22	Bolton	9	1	2	6	7	15	-8	5
23	Fulham	9	1	1	7	8	20	-12	4
24	Blackpool	9	0	2	7	4	13	-9	2

Notable results over the weekend included Fulham's first league win of the season over Birmingham and the six goal thriller between Reading and Wolves.
However my pick of the last round was Blackpool's 3-1 home defeat to Norwich.
This result out of any shows that when your luck is out, it really is out.
The Seasiders took the lead against probably the best team in the division and then got turned-around by an own goal and a massive deflection.
The poor defending which led to the third Norwich goal probably shows a combination of lack of skill and sheer dejection kicking in.
I'm really beginning to feel sorry for Blackpool - fans, players manager. Admittedly their shot share has tailed off in recent weeks, but this really is a brutal run of luck.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
1	Norwich	168	109	0.607
2	Nott'm Forest	120	112	0.517
3	Wolves	125	107	0.539
4	Watford	126	153	0.452
5	Ipswich	127	140	0.476
6	Derby	128	124	0.508
7	Middlesbrough	151	77	0.662
8	Charlton	88	131	0.402
9	Sheffield Weds	128	107	0.545
10	Blackburn	140	125	0.528
11	Reading	98	123	0.443
12	Brentford	120	127	0.486
13	Leeds	79	154	0.339
14	Bournemouth	136	111	0.551
15	Cardiff	97	140	0.409
16	Millwall	125	110	0.532
17	Brighton	147	92	0.615
18	Wigan	112	100	0.528
19	Rotherham	137	115	0.544
20	Huddersfield	133	119	0.528
21	Birmingham	114	145	0.44
22	Bolton	113	161	0.412
23	Fulham	117	117	0.5
24	Blackpool	102	132	0.436

Looking forward to this week's games, and there are a few that are probably worth looking out for from an analytics view.
Brighton v Cardiff is interesting, because despite being two bottom half teams, the Seagulls are second in shot share (Corsi/TSR), second in shots on target share... and third worst in luck (PDO).
Cardiff meanwhile have improved shot shares slightly over the last couple of games and are now eighth in shots on target share, with a just below average PDO score.
So it could be very interesting to see how that one plays out.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	53	36	0.596
2	Nott'm Forest	37	36	0.507
3	Wolves	33	28	0.541
4	Watford	43	44	0.494
5	Ipswich	41	39	0.512
6	Derby	49	46	0.516
7	Middlesbrough	41	21	0.661
8	Charlton	29	37	0.439
9	Sheffield Weds	33	27	0.55
10	Blackburn	52	48	0.52
11	Reading	29	38	0.433
12	Brentford	43	43	0.5
13	Leeds	26	44	0.372
14	Bournemouth	48	32	0.6
15	Cardiff	34	30	0.531
16	Millwall	40	31	0.563
17	Brighton	40	24	0.625
18	Wigan	25	39	0.391
19	Rotherham	38	36	0.513
20	Huddersfield	43	43	0.5
21	Birmingham	29	47	0.382
22	Bolton	34	54	0.386
23	Fulham	37	44	0.457
24	Blackpool	28	38	0.424

The bottom three clash between Fulham and Boloton shouldn't even be close looking at the underlying numbers, but again, PDO is doing a big bad job on Fulham. I keep saying the London side are due a turn in luck, maybe its starting with that win on the weekend.

Derby vs Bournemouth is another that suggests an interesting match-up. Derby are still much fancied, but Bournemouth's numbers really are very good indeed. This could be a case of score effects here, but having watched a couple of the Cherries' games they certainly seem the genuine article to me.
Its noticable that every team above Bournemouth in the table has a higher PDO score. Again, as that starts to settle down a bit more we should see the south coast side move up the table and they could be an outside bet for the playoffs or even promotion.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Norwich	37.73	77.78	115.5
2	Nott'm Forest	45.96	80.55	126.51
3	Wolves	33.33	78.57	111.91
4	Watford	39.53	77.27	116.81
5	Ipswich	31.71	82.06	113.77
6	Derby	34.7	78.27	112.97
7	Middlesbrough	31.71	66.68	98.39
8	Charlton	41.38	75.68	117.06
9	Sheffield Weds	27.28	77.78	105.05
10	Blackburn	30.76	66.67	97.43
11	Reading	48.27	63.16	111.44
12	Brentford	25.59	69.77	95.36
13	Leeds	38.45	72.72	111.18
14	Bournemouth	29.17	65.62	94.79
15	Cardiff	35.29	60.01	95.3
16	Millwall	22.5	67.73	90.23
17	Brighton	20	58.33	78.33
18	Wigan	40.02	69.23	109.24
19	Rotherham	15.79	66.67	82.46
20	Huddersfield	20.93	55.8	76.73
21	Birmingham	27.58	65.95	93.53
22	Bolton	20.58	72.22	92.8
23	Fulham	21.62	54.55	76.17
24	Blackpool	14.29	65.8	80.09

And finally I really do fear for the health of Joe Lewis in the Blackpool goal. It's just about the worst week he could expect. First Norwich (most shots taken in the league), then Middlesbrough (second most shots taken). If form (and luck) stays true, then it could be a massacre at Bloomfield Road.
However stranger things have happened in football than a rock bottom team seeing its luck turn against one of the top sides.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	0.607	115.5	0.596
2	Nott'm Forest	0.517	126.51	0.507
3	Wolves	0.539	111.91	0.541
4	Watford	0.452	116.81	0.494
5	Ipswich	0.476	113.77	0.512
6	Derby	0.508	112.97	0.516
7	Middlesbrough	0.662	98.39	0.661
8	Charlton	0.402	117.06	0.439
9	Sheffield Weds	0.545	105.05	0.55
10	Blackburn	0.528	97.43	0.52
11	Reading	0.443	111.44	0.433
12	Brentford	0.486	95.36	0.5
13	Leeds	0.339	111.18	0.372
14	Bournemouth	0.551	94.79	0.6
15	Cardiff	0.409	95.3	0.531
16	Millwall	0.532	90.23	0.563
17	Brighton	0.615	78.33	0.625
18	Wigan	0.528	109.24	0.391
19	Rotherham	0.544	82.46	0.513
20	Huddersfield	0.528	76.73	0.5
21	Birmingham	0.44	93.53	0.382
22	Bolton	0.412	92.8	0.386
23	Fulham	0.5	76.17	0.457
24	Blackpool	0.436	80.09	0.424

Enjoy the games.

Championship Week 8: Moving day - tracking the early season ups and downs

The Saturday (or third day more generally) of major golf tournaments is commonly known as "Moving day".
So with the greatest golf tournament of all on-going (the Ryder Cup, of course), TOSTM has chosen today to look back at some of those who have made noticable moves either up or down the table from the early weeks.

Let's start with the table as it stands after eight rounds of matches:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Nottingham Forest	8	5	3	0	17	7	10	18
2	Norwich	8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17
3	Wolverhampton Wanderers	8	5	2	1	8	3	5	17
4	Watford	8	5	1	2	15	8	7	16
5	Middlesbrough	8	5	0	3	13	7	6	15
6	Sheffield Wednesday	8	4	3	1	8	4	4	15
7	Ipswich	8	4	2	2	11	7	4	14
8	Charlton	8	3	5	0	12	9	3	14
9	Derby	8	3	4	1	15	10	5	13
10	Blackburn	8	4	1	3	14	14	0	13
11	Reading	8	4	1	3	11	11	0	13
12	Leeds	8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13
13	Millwall	8	3	2	3	8	8	0	11
14	Brentford	8	3	2	3	9	13	-4	11
15	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	12	11	1	9
16	Cardiff	8	2	3	3	10	11	-1	9
17	Wigan	8	2	2	4	10	10	0	8
18	Brighton	8	2	2	4	8	10	-2	8
19	Rotherham	8	2	2	4	6	10	-4	8
20	Birmingham	8	1	4	3	7	14	-7	7
21	Bolton	8	1	2	5	7	13	-6	5
22	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	7	18	-11	5
23	Blackpool	8	0	2	6	3	10	-7	2
24	Fulham	8	0	1	7	6	19	-13	1

The most noticable mover is probably Leeds United. After a horror start to the season which I wrote about in week four and which earned Dave Hockaday the sack, all is now well and rosy at Elland Road with Leeds safely out of danger in mid-table and no hint of problems on the pitch.
And just two points off a play-off place the team really has a shot at going for promotion too.
Not so fast.

Back in week four Leeds had a 31.4% share of all shots (Corsi/TSR). After week eight Leeds has.... 33.7% of all shots.
So what explains the massive rise up the table?
Well the majority of it can be put down to our good old friend PDO. In week four Leeds had a way below average PDO of 71.66. After week eight that's now a bouyant 114.06.
However, we know PDO is not really sustainable over the long term so there's some warning signs there, particularly with the shot share not significantly improving.

There is one encouraging sign: in week five (the first time I have these figures for) Leeds had 30.3% of the shots on target - pretty close to its all shots share.
In week eight, that number has increased to 40.4%.

Whether that number is sustainable without a reciprocal improvement in all shots I'm not sure.
But I would not be counting any chickens just yet, Leeds fans.

Also, once again, poor Dave Hockaday. Given another couple of weeks this PDO bounce could have been his and he'd still be in gainful employment having "riden out the storm".
but still, if these underlying numbers don't change much I suspect this might be the high water mark for Leeds this season.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
1	Nott'm Forest	106	100	0.515
2	Norwich	153	99	0.607
3	Wolves	115	94	0.55
4	Watford	113	123	0.479
5	Middlesbrough	142	72	0.664
6	Sheffield Weds	118	93	0.559
7	Ipswich	112	116	0.491
8	Charlton	83	122	0.405
9	Derby	112	115	0.493
10	Blackburn	110	112	0.495
11	Reading	85	113	0.429
12	Leeds	66	130	0.337
13	Millwall	117	99	0.542
14	Brentford	96	114	0.457
15	Bournemouth	119	100	0.543
16	Cardiff	83	130	0.39
17	Wigan	101	83	0.549
18	Brighton	135	78	0.634
19	Rotherham	113	100	0.531
20	Birmingham	105	132	0.443
21	Bolton	104	145	0.418
22	Huddersfield	122	111	0.524
23	Blackpool	92	117	0.44
24	Fulham	104	108	0.491

Reading and Ipswich

I mentioned Reading last week, so will avoid going into too much detail about the Royals. But Ipswich's season has prgressed very similarly to Reading's so far.
Four weeks in the clubs were tied on four points well in the lower half of the table.
Now Ipswich is joint seventh on 14 points with Reading tied for eleventh on 13 points.

Both teams have seen their shot share fall, but their PDO rise from below 100 to well over it.
In fact, Ipswich now has less than half the shots in each game on average, with Reading seemingly slipping further away from parity each week. 
However the shots on target share is a far happier one for Ipswich than Reading.

If forced to, I know which team I'd be putting some money on to retain its position throughout the season.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
1	Nott'm Forest	36	34	0.514
2	Norwich	47	30	0.61
3	Wolves	30	23	0.566
4	Watford	38	35	0.521
5	Middlesbrough	40	20	0.667
6	Sheffield Weds	32	23	0.582
7	Ipswich	35	34	0.507
8	Charlton	28	36	0.438
9	Derby	42	44	0.488
10	Blackburn	43	43	0.5
11	Reading	24	35	0.407
12	Leeds	23	34	0.404
13	Millwall	38	28	0.576
14	Brentford	33	40	0.452
15	Bournemouth	42	30	0.583
16	Cardiff	30	29	0.509
17	Wigan	23	33	0.411
18	Brighton	38	23	0.623
19	Rotherham	33	30	0.524
20	Birmingham	26	39	0.4
21	Bolton	32	47	0.405
22	Huddersfield	40	41	0.494
23	Blackpool	22	32	0.407
24	Fulham	29	41	0.414

Middlesbrough

In week six I singled out Brighton and Middlesbrough as teams to watch to move up the table when their PDO scores regressed from subterranean levels, as the underlying numbers were pretty good.
Well, we're still waiting for the Brighton bounce, but Middlesbrough duly obliged over the next two games and are now sitting pretty in fifth place, still with top class shot share numbers.
Which means trouble for those teams around them.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Nott'm Forest	47.23	79.41	126.64
2	Norwich	36.16	76.67	112.83
3	Wolves	26.65	86.96	113.61
4	Watford	39.46	77.15	116.61
5	Middlesbrough	32.5	65	97.5
6	Sheffield Weds	25	82.62	107.61
7	Ipswich	31.43	79.41	110.84
8	Charlton	42.84	75	117.84
9	Derby	35.71	77.28	112.99
10	Blackburn	32.56	67.44	100
11	Reading	45.8	68.58	114.38
12	Leeds	43.48	70.58	114.06
13	Millwall	21.04	71.44	92.48
14	Brentford	27.27	67.5	94.77
15	Bournemouth	28.57	63.33	91.9
16	Cardiff	33.32	62.07	95.39
17	Wigan	43.47	69.71	113.18
18	Brighton	21.05	56.53	77.57
19	Rotherham	18.18	66.67	84.84
20	Birmingham	26.91	64.11	91.02
21	Bolton	21.87	72.34	94.22
22	Huddersfield	17.5	56.12	73.62
23	Blackpool	13.64	68.76	82.4
24	Fulham	20.69	53.65	74.35

Huddersfield

We also have a new most cursed team.
Yes the Terriers have taken over from Blackpool and Fulham.
True they haven't moved that much in the table, largely because their luck has just got worse.
With a PDO of 73.62 they are just having a norredous time at the moment, despite being a positive shot share team.
Of course some of that may be down ot score effects, but you would have to think it will turn around at some point.
Only Blackpool has a worse scoring rate and Fulham a worse save figure.
Poor Huddersfield.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Nott'm Forest	0.515	126.64	0.514
2	Norwich	0.607	112.83	0.61
3	Wolves	0.55	113.61	0.566
4	Watford	0.479	116.61	0.521
5	Middlesbrough	0.664	97.5	0.667
6	Sheffield Weds	0.559	107.61	0.582
7	Ipswich	0.491	110.84	0.507
8	Charlton	0.405	117.84	0.438
9	Derby	0.493	112.99	0.488
10	Blackburn	0.495	100	0.5
11	Reading	0.429	114.38	0.407
12	Leeds	0.337	114.06	0.404
13	Millwall	0.542	92.48	0.576
14	Brentford	0.457	94.77	0.452
15	Bournemouth	0.543	91.9	0.583
16	Cardiff	0.39	95.39	0.509
17	Wigan	0.549	113.18	0.411
18	Brighton	0.634	77.57	0.623
19	Rotherham	0.531	84.84	0.524
20	Birmingham	0.443	91.02	0.4
21	Bolton	0.418	94.22	0.405
22	Huddersfield	0.524	73.62	0.494
23	Blackpool	0.44	82.4	0.407
24	Fulham	0.491	74.35	0.414

Finally, Cardiff
Cardiff has been one of the other big movers so far in this early season.
But I've covered the ups and (mostly) downs quite a bit here, so I'll leave that for the rest of the day.

As ever, play around with the tables and see what other trends you can spot.
Comments and suggestions always welcome and when life calms down I've got a couple of extra posts to hopefully put up too.

Championship Week 7: Reading and Charlton – brothers in fancystats

Last time around I looked at Middlesbrough and Brighton, two teams seemingly cursed by the football gods. So this time let’s look at those teams apparently in the Almighty’s good books - Reading and Charlton.
As we can see from the early season real life table, both teams are sitting nicely in the top six on 13 points – one win away from Norwich in second.
But there’s a clue even in this table that these positions might not be fully reflective of the clubs’ performances already.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Nott'm Forest	7	5	2	0	17	7	10	17
2	Norwich	7	5	1	1	15	5	10	16
3	Watford	7	5	0	2	14	7	7	15
4	Wolves	7	4	2	1	7	3	4	14
5	Charlton	7	3	4	0	11	8	3	13
6	Reading	7	4	1	2	11	10	1	13
7	Derby	7	3	3	1	13	8	5	12
8	Sheffield Weds	7	3	3	1	7	4	3	12
9	Middlesbrough	7	4	0	3	9	7	2	12
10	Ipswich	7	3	2	2	9	6	3	11
11	Brentford	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
12	Millwall	7	3	1	3	8	8	0	10
13	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	13	14	-1	10
14	Leeds	7	3	1	3	7	10	-3	10
15	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	11	10	1	8
16	Wigan	7	2	2	3	9	8	1	8
17	Cardiff	7	2	2	3	8	9	-1	8
18	Brighton	7	2	1	4	8	10	-2	7
19	Rotherham	7	2	1	4	5	9	-4	7
20	Birmingham	7	1	3	3	5	12	-7	6
21	Bolton	7	1	2	4	7	12	-5	5
22	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	7	15	-8	5
23	Blackpool	7	0	1	6	3	10	-7	1
24	Fulham	7	0	1	6	6	18	-12	1

Charlton have a goal difference of +3, while Reading’s is just +1.
Derby (+5), Sheffield Wednesday (+3) and Ipswich (+3) all have goal differences equal to or better than Charlton’s, while teams as far down as Bournemouth and Wigan (in 15th and 16th respectively) are equal to Reading’s score.
This certainly isn’t definite proof that these teams are currently sitting above performance levels, but it gives a hint that we should be scrutinising them.
So let’s do that and have a look at the deeper stats.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Nott'm Forest	99	85	0.538	50.02	76.66	126.67
2	Norwich	125	84	0.598	34.88	80.77	115.65
3	Watford	101	111	0.476	40	76.67	116.67
4	Wolves	100	83	0.546	29.16	83.34	112.5
5	Charlton	70	99	0.414	45.83	73.33	119.15
6	Reading	74	97	0.433	52.39	69.7	122.09
7	Derby	94	105	0.472	35.13	80.49	115.62
8	Sheffield Weds	102	82	0.554	23.34	79.99	103.33
9	Middlesbrough	120	66	0.645	29.04	61.11	90.15
10	Ipswich	104	96	0.52	29.99	80.64	110.63
11	Brentford	90	92	0.495	29.03	70.97	99.99
12	Millwall	102	92	0.526	23.53	69.22	92.76
13	Blackburn	98	105	0.483	34.21	65.86	100.06
14	Leeds	58	116	0.333	38.87	70.59	109.46
15	Bournemouth	107	88	0.549	29.72	62.96	92.68
16	Wigan	81	75	0.519	45.01	71.41	116.42
17	Cardiff	73	112	0.395	29.62	62.5	92.13
18	Brighton	110	71	0.608	25.01	52.37	77.38
19	Rotherham	90	87	0.509	18.51	65.39	83.91
20	Birmingham	90	104	0.464	22.73	65.72	88.44
21	Bolton	93	130	0.417	25.92	70.73	96.65
22	Huddersfield	108	103	0.512	17.5	58.32	75.82
23	Blackpool	85	92	0.48	15	61.53	76.53
24	Fulham	97	96	0.503	22.21	49.98	72.2

Well we can see that the indications from the goal difference are right in this case.
And it’s remarkable just how similar these teams are: both are well under 50% shot share (Corsi/TSR) and both have high PDO (luck) scores driven largely by sky high shooting %s - first and third in the league.
And both are wildly unsustainable in the long term one would expect.
Going down to the raw data it is amazing how similar they are – Charlton have taken 70 shots, conceded 99, with Reading taking 74 and allowing 97.
If we want to see which of these team’s success is more sustainable, we need to find a bigger difference between them than the odd shot here or there.
Well three points of PDO late in the season would be a more significant margin later on in the season, but in these early days it can be as little as the difference of one goal scored, or one extra save made.
However, the shots on target tell a different story.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Nott'm Forest	0.538	34	30	126.67	0.531
2	Norwich	0.598	43	26	115.65	0.623
3	Watford	0.476	35	30	116.67	0.538
4	Wolves	0.546	24	18	112.5	0.571
5	Charlton	0.414	24	30	119.15	0.445
6	Reading	0.433	21	33	122.09	0.389
7	Derby	0.472	37	41	115.62	0.474
8	Sheffield Weds	0.554	30	20	103.33	0.6
9	Middlesbrough	0.645	31	18	90.15	0.633
10	Ipswich	0.52	30	31	110.63	0.492
11	Brentford	0.495	31	31	99.99	0.5
12	Millwall	0.526	34	26	92.76	0.567
13	Blackburn	0.483	38	41	100.06	0.481
14	Leeds	0.333	18	34	109.46	0.346
15	Bournemouth	0.549	37	27	92.68	0.578
16	Wigan	0.519	20	28	116.42	0.417
17	Cardiff	0.395	27	24	92.13	0.529
18	Brighton	0.608	32	21	77.38	0.604
19	Rotherham	0.509	27	26	83.91	0.509
20	Birmingham	0.464	22	35	88.44	0.386
21	Bolton	0.417	27	41	96.65	0.397
22	Huddersfield	0.512	40	36	75.82	0.526
23	Blackpool	0.48	20	26	76.53	0.435
24	Fulham	0.503	27	36	72.2	0.429

Both teams have a variation of about 0.04 between their shot share and shots on target share scores – only in opposite directions, producing a 0.075 difference in Charlton’s favour.
Sure that might not seem like much, but continued at the same rate, that would mean an extra 7.5 shots on target per 100 taken.
And if we extrapolate that at league average shooting rates (31%) – we can see that Charlton would expect to score around 2.3 more goals than Reading per 100 shots taken.
Over the course of a season, that can certainly prove the difference between being in the playoffs or just outside, or in the relegation zone or not.
However the big take away from Charlton and Reading is that neither team has pretty numbers right now.
Sure, score effects will likely be playing their part, but a near 50% shooting level just isn’t sustainable, and sooner or later the PDO score will cool off.
Whether this pair can adapt when they do will be the important question, or it could be a very bumpy ride.

Ouch

Speaking of bumpy rides, I’m really beginning to feel very sorry for Felix Magath at Fulham.
Despite scoring three goals away at the league leaders he still gets burned by PDO with Forest scoring on all five shots on target.
Even Ross McCormack’s first league goals for the club couldn’t help him out.
It really is painful to watch at the moment. I’ve not had time to look at the goals Fulham conceded to see what was going on there, but it seems pretty harsh to ship five goals on five shots on target, even if one was a penalty.
I’m quite frankly amazed that Fulham owner/chairman Shahid Khan has stuck by Magath so long. Either he appreciates the team isn’t getting outplayed (a 50.3% shot share shows that) and expects the luck (72.2 PDO) to turn around at some point, or he’s simply not ready to write-off his investment in Magath (personally and financially) yet.
Either way I tip my hat to him for waiting it out.

[UPDATE: Apologies but by the time I published this post Khan had actually sacked Magath. It's been an incredibly hectic week for me and I didn't get a chance to double check it before publishing. As I wrote, I was surprised Magath lasted as long as he did in this age of short-term managers, but would have liked to see him given a while longer. So who will be the lucky receipient of Fulham's PDO rebound (when it does)?]

Goodbye

In contrast Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s departure from Cardiff was probably fairly deserved through both statistical analysis and on the pitch performances.
More on this later, but the Bluebirds had been constantly outplayed all season with only a highly inflated share of the shots on target and slightly elevated PDO keeping them above water.
Once the PDO started to fall and the share of all shots (Corsi/TSR) continued dropping it really was time for him to go.
And for those who watched the final few games of Solskjaer’s reign, they will have been all that was needed to seal his fate.