Championship Week 9: A midweek quickie

Just a quick post today with the next round of Championship games being played midweek.
Here's the real life table as it stands after Saturday and Sunday's games:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	9	6	2	1	20	8	12	20
2	Nott'm Forest	9	5	4	0	17	7	10	19
3	Wolves	9	5	3	1	11	6	5	18
4	Watford	9	5	2	2	17	10	7	17
5	Ipswich	9	5	2	2	13	7	6	17
6	Derby	9	4	4	1	17	10	7	16
7	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	13	7	6	16
8	Charlton	9	3	6	0	12	9	3	15
9	Sheffield Weds	9	4	3	2	9	6	3	15
10	Blackburn	9	4	2	3	16	16	0	14
11	Reading	9	4	2	3	14	14	0	14
12	Brentford	9	4	2	3	11	13	-2	14
13	Leeds	9	4	1	4	10	12	-2	13
14	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	14	11	3	12
15	Cardiff	9	3	3	3	12	12	0	12
16	Millwall	9	3	2	4	9	10	-1	11
17	Brighton	9	2	3	4	8	10	-2	9
18	Wigan	9	2	2	5	10	12	-2	8
19	Rotherham	9	2	2	5	6	12	-6	8
20	Huddersfield	9	2	2	5	9	19	-10	8
21	Birmingham	9	1	4	4	8	16	-8	7
22	Bolton	9	1	2	6	7	15	-8	5
23	Fulham	9	1	1	7	8	20	-12	4
24	Blackpool	9	0	2	7	4	13	-9	2

Notable results over the weekend included Fulham's first league win of the season over Birmingham and the six goal thriller between Reading and Wolves.
However my pick of the last round was Blackpool's 3-1 home defeat to Norwich.
This result out of any shows that when your luck is out, it really is out.
The Seasiders took the lead against probably the best team in the division and then got turned-around by an own goal and a massive deflection.
The poor defending which led to the third Norwich goal probably shows a combination of lack of skill and sheer dejection kicking in.
I'm really beginning to feel sorry for Blackpool - fans, players manager. Admittedly their shot share has tailed off in recent weeks, but this really is a brutal run of luck.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
1	Norwich	168	109	0.607
2	Nott'm Forest	120	112	0.517
3	Wolves	125	107	0.539
4	Watford	126	153	0.452
5	Ipswich	127	140	0.476
6	Derby	128	124	0.508
7	Middlesbrough	151	77	0.662
8	Charlton	88	131	0.402
9	Sheffield Weds	128	107	0.545
10	Blackburn	140	125	0.528
11	Reading	98	123	0.443
12	Brentford	120	127	0.486
13	Leeds	79	154	0.339
14	Bournemouth	136	111	0.551
15	Cardiff	97	140	0.409
16	Millwall	125	110	0.532
17	Brighton	147	92	0.615
18	Wigan	112	100	0.528
19	Rotherham	137	115	0.544
20	Huddersfield	133	119	0.528
21	Birmingham	114	145	0.44
22	Bolton	113	161	0.412
23	Fulham	117	117	0.5
24	Blackpool	102	132	0.436

Looking forward to this week's games, and there are a few that are probably worth looking out for from an analytics view.
Brighton v Cardiff is interesting, because despite being two bottom half teams, the Seagulls are second in shot share (Corsi/TSR), second in shots on target share... and third worst in luck (PDO).
Cardiff meanwhile have improved shot shares slightly over the last couple of games and are now eighth in shots on target share, with a just below average PDO score.
So it could be very interesting to see how that one plays out.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	53	36	0.596
2	Nott'm Forest	37	36	0.507
3	Wolves	33	28	0.541
4	Watford	43	44	0.494
5	Ipswich	41	39	0.512
6	Derby	49	46	0.516
7	Middlesbrough	41	21	0.661
8	Charlton	29	37	0.439
9	Sheffield Weds	33	27	0.55
10	Blackburn	52	48	0.52
11	Reading	29	38	0.433
12	Brentford	43	43	0.5
13	Leeds	26	44	0.372
14	Bournemouth	48	32	0.6
15	Cardiff	34	30	0.531
16	Millwall	40	31	0.563
17	Brighton	40	24	0.625
18	Wigan	25	39	0.391
19	Rotherham	38	36	0.513
20	Huddersfield	43	43	0.5
21	Birmingham	29	47	0.382
22	Bolton	34	54	0.386
23	Fulham	37	44	0.457
24	Blackpool	28	38	0.424

The bottom three clash between Fulham and Boloton shouldn't even be close looking at the underlying numbers, but again, PDO is doing a big bad job on Fulham. I keep saying the London side are due a turn in luck, maybe its starting with that win on the weekend.

Derby vs Bournemouth is another that suggests an interesting match-up. Derby are still much fancied, but Bournemouth's numbers really are very good indeed. This could be a case of score effects here, but having watched a couple of the Cherries' games they certainly seem the genuine article to me.
Its noticable that every team above Bournemouth in the table has a higher PDO score. Again, as that starts to settle down a bit more we should see the south coast side move up the table and they could be an outside bet for the playoffs or even promotion.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Norwich	37.73	77.78	115.5
2	Nott'm Forest	45.96	80.55	126.51
3	Wolves	33.33	78.57	111.91
4	Watford	39.53	77.27	116.81
5	Ipswich	31.71	82.06	113.77
6	Derby	34.7	78.27	112.97
7	Middlesbrough	31.71	66.68	98.39
8	Charlton	41.38	75.68	117.06
9	Sheffield Weds	27.28	77.78	105.05
10	Blackburn	30.76	66.67	97.43
11	Reading	48.27	63.16	111.44
12	Brentford	25.59	69.77	95.36
13	Leeds	38.45	72.72	111.18
14	Bournemouth	29.17	65.62	94.79
15	Cardiff	35.29	60.01	95.3
16	Millwall	22.5	67.73	90.23
17	Brighton	20	58.33	78.33
18	Wigan	40.02	69.23	109.24
19	Rotherham	15.79	66.67	82.46
20	Huddersfield	20.93	55.8	76.73
21	Birmingham	27.58	65.95	93.53
22	Bolton	20.58	72.22	92.8
23	Fulham	21.62	54.55	76.17
24	Blackpool	14.29	65.8	80.09

And finally I really do fear for the health of Joe Lewis in the Blackpool goal. It's just about the worst week he could expect. First Norwich (most shots taken in the league), then Middlesbrough (second most shots taken). If form (and luck) stays true, then it could be a massacre at Bloomfield Road.
However stranger things have happened in football than a rock bottom team seeing its luck turn against one of the top sides.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	0.607	115.5	0.596
2	Nott'm Forest	0.517	126.51	0.507
3	Wolves	0.539	111.91	0.541
4	Watford	0.452	116.81	0.494
5	Ipswich	0.476	113.77	0.512
6	Derby	0.508	112.97	0.516
7	Middlesbrough	0.662	98.39	0.661
8	Charlton	0.402	117.06	0.439
9	Sheffield Weds	0.545	105.05	0.55
10	Blackburn	0.528	97.43	0.52
11	Reading	0.443	111.44	0.433
12	Brentford	0.486	95.36	0.5
13	Leeds	0.339	111.18	0.372
14	Bournemouth	0.551	94.79	0.6
15	Cardiff	0.409	95.3	0.531
16	Millwall	0.532	90.23	0.563
17	Brighton	0.615	78.33	0.625
18	Wigan	0.528	109.24	0.391
19	Rotherham	0.544	82.46	0.513
20	Huddersfield	0.528	76.73	0.5
21	Birmingham	0.44	93.53	0.382
22	Bolton	0.412	92.8	0.386
23	Fulham	0.5	76.17	0.457
24	Blackpool	0.436	80.09	0.424

Enjoy the games.