Championship Week 15: Bournemouth soar, Forest slide, Lee Clark's awfulness

So it's been a hectic few weeks in the Championship (and for me) with quite a few changes at the top end and just two notable ones at the bottom end.
Looking at the top we see Watford now top three points clear of Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Wolves.
The biggest surprise there is obviously the south coast team, but as we'll see in a bit, the Cherries deserve the lofty perch.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	15	8	5	2	29	16	13	29
2	Bournemouth	15	8	3	4	31	16	15	27
3	Middlesbrough	15	8	3	4	22	12	10	27
4	Wolves	15	7	6	2	21	15	6	27
5	Derby	15	7	5	3	25	14	11	26
6	Norwich	15	7	5	3	24	13	11	26
7	Blackburn	15	7	4	4	24	21	3	25
8	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	22	16	6	24
9	Charlton	15	5	8	2	17	16	1	23
10	Nott'm Forest	15	5	7	3	23	19	4	22
11	Cardiff	15	6	4	5	21	18	3	22
12	Brentford	15	6	4	5	18	20	-2	22
13	Sheffield Weds	15	4	8	3	12	12	0	20
14	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	22	25	-3	20
15	Reading	15	5	3	7	19	26	-7	18
16	Millwall	15	4	5	6	15	19	-4	17
17	Rotherham	15	4	5	6	15	21	-6	17
18	Wigan	15	3	7	5	17	18	-1	16
19	Leeds	15	4	4	7	15	21	-6	16
20	Fulham	15	4	3	8	22	28	-6	15
21	Brighton	15	2	7	6	15	19	-4	13
22	Birmingham	15	2	6	7	12	28	-16	12
23	Bolton	15	3	2	10	14	26	-12	11
24	Blackpool	15	1	3	11	8	24	-16	6

Cherry picking stats

I've watched a few Bournemouth games of late and have to say that I've really enjoyed them - something relayed by their stats.
The Cherries are sixth in total shots taken and third in shots on target. Combine that with a very solid defensive record and their underlying stats are really good - fourth in total shot share (Corsi/TSR) and an even more impressive third in shots on target share with more than 60% on average.
And this has been a season-long trend - SoT share has never been below 56%, while since week three the overall shot share has remained above 50%.

Week 10 was their most recent low point of the season so far when they hit 15th place - by no coincidence this was when they had a PDO of just 92.86.
Since then that has regressed back up and now sits above average at 107.88. But even as and when Bournemouth's PDO drops back a little, it's still very easy to see Eddie Howe's side challenging for promotion.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
22	Birmingham	200	263	0.432
7	Blackburn	245	215	0.533
24	Blackpool	168	229	0.423
23	Bolton	194	244	0.443
2	Bournemouth	229	185	0.553
12	Brentford	189	220	0.462
21	Brighton	243	163	0.598
11	Cardiff	173	228	0.431
9	Charlton	154	227	0.404
5	Derby	208	197	0.514
20	Fulham	194	206	0.485
14	Huddersfield	212	217	0.494
8	Ipswich	202	218	0.481
19	Leeds	147	245	0.375
3	Middlesbrough	238	150	0.613
16	Millwall	207	177	0.539
6	Norwich	268	147	0.646
10	Nott'm Forest	208	193	0.519
15	Reading	188	202	0.482
17	Rotherham	215	220	0.494
13	Sheffield Weds	196	178	0.524
1	Watford	213	231	0.48
18	Wigan	189	169	0.528
4	Wolves	232	188	0.553

Forest's autumn fall

Taking the reverse path to Bournemouth has been Nottingham Forest.
I mentioned a few weeks back that Forest's position atop the division looked rather fragile and so it is proving to be.
Forest are doing this PDO cold turkey in one long hard dose.
From being joint top at week 11 with a PDO of 122.26, Forest are now tenth, having picked up just one point in four games with a PDO of 108.31.
So there's still a little way to go potentially for Stuart Pearce's side.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
22	Birmingham	54	90	0.375
7	Blackburn	83	70	0.542
24	Blackpool	48	69	0.41
23	Bolton	60	86	0.411
2	Bournemouth	85	56	0.603
12	Brentford	68	71	0.489
21	Brighton	62	48	0.564
11	Cardiff	57	54	0.514
9	Charlton	46	65	0.415
5	Derby	71	71	0.5
20	Fulham	68	65	0.511
14	Huddersfield	78	72	0.52
8	Ipswich	63	64	0.496
19	Leeds	43	81	0.347
3	Middlesbrough	68	39	0.636
16	Millwall	63	58	0.521
6	Norwich	81	48	0.628
10	Nott'm Forest	62	66	0.484
15	Reading	55	64	0.462
17	Rotherham	68	67	0.504
13	Sheffield Weds	51	51	0.5
1	Watford	76	64	0.543
18	Wigan	53	59	0.473
4	Wolves	71	56	0.559

More worryingly though, Forest's total shot share has barely hovered above 50% and the shots on target share has actually dipped to below 50% and now sits at just 48%.
Maintain those numbers and Forest's promotion hopes will likely be extinct.
I've not watched much of Forest this season, so it would be interesting to know if this hard patch has seen Pearce change his tactics and hence the drop in shot shares.
If not, then perhaps he needs to. Or perhaps it is something more simple such as coming across a tough part of the fixture list.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
22	Birmingham	22.23	68.88	91.11
7	Blackburn	28.92	69.99	98.91
24	Blackpool	16.67	65.22	81.89
23	Bolton	23.34	69.78	93.11
2	Bournemouth	36.46	71.42	107.88
12	Brentford	26.47	71.84	98.3
21	Brighton	24.2	60.43	84.63
11	Cardiff	36.85	66.66	103.51
9	Charlton	36.94	75.38	112.32
5	Derby	35.21	80.28	115.48
20	Fulham	32.36	56.91	89.27
14	Huddersfield	28.21	65.29	93.5
8	Ipswich	34.91	75	109.91
19	Leeds	34.89	74.07	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	32.35	69.23	101.58
16	Millwall	23.81	67.24	91.06
6	Norwich	29.63	72.91	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	37.08	71.22	108.31
15	Reading	34.55	59.38	93.93
17	Rotherham	22.06	68.66	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	23.52	76.48	100
1	Watford	38.16	75	113.16
18	Wigan	32.08	69.5	101.58
4	Wolves	29.57	73.21	102.78

Lee Clark... just wow 

Finally - Birmingham.
I'm frankly amazed Lee Clark lasted as long as he did - it's shocking how much time a last day last minute escape can buy you. It took, of course, a PDO dip to get him sacked, but a PDO boost saved him earlier this season too.
Yes, we are still dealing in small sample sizes, but last season's statistal poor showing (and near-relegation scare) should have been ample warning.
To put the full horror of Clark's team into persepective - Birmingham has not had a corsi/TSR score of more than 46% (46.4% to be exact) all season and the shots on target performance is even worse.
The high point here is 41.7% - a full TWO THIRDS of the season has been spent with a shots on target share of LESS than 40%.
It really is horrific.
Yes, it's very apparent that there are other (bigger) problems at Birmingham, but unless Gary Rowett can really improve things (or they get a massive PDO boost) then Blues will be getting relegated.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
22	Birmingham	0.432	0.375	91.11
7	Blackburn	0.533	0.542	98.91
24	Blackpool	0.423	0.41	81.89
23	Bolton	0.443	0.411	93.11
2	Bournemouth	0.553	0.603	107.88
12	Brentford	0.462	0.489	98.3
21	Brighton	0.598	0.564	84.63
11	Cardiff	0.431	0.514	103.51
9	Charlton	0.404	0.415	112.32
5	Derby	0.514	0.5	115.48
20	Fulham	0.485	0.511	89.27
14	Huddersfield	0.494	0.52	93.5
8	Ipswich	0.481	0.496	109.91
19	Leeds	0.375	0.347	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	0.613	0.636	101.58
16	Millwall	0.539	0.521	91.06
6	Norwich	0.646	0.628	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	0.519	0.484	108.31
15	Reading	0.482	0.462	93.93
17	Rotherham	0.494	0.504	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	0.524	0.5	100
1	Watford	0.48	0.543	113.16
18	Wigan	0.528	0.473	101.58
4	Wolves	0.553	0.559	102.78

PS - Poor Blackpool (again).
Having the aforementioned Lee Clark thrust upon you may be too much for one fan base to take.

Blackpool started off the first seven games with reasonable (given their position) shot share and shots on target share numbers - c 48% and 44% respectively.
But since then it's been all downhill.


PPS - I really hope Brighton's god-awful PDO (luck, variance, however you wish to describe it) turns soon.
The underlying numbers are just too good to ignore or all be down to score effects.
The Seagulls are still up at around 60% of all shots and have just started to dip slightly with shots on target share, but still boast a heafty 56.4% share there.
Saturday night's game may have summed up their season so far - competing hard going toe-to-toe with an aggressive attacking team and then one stupid error giving up a penalty, and thus the losing goal.
Credit to Brighton's fans and ownership for sticking by Hyypia - I hope their loyalty is paid back by the footballing gods soon.