Friday 6 March 2015

Championship Week 35: Making a break for it


Another quick post this week.
Here's the Championship stats after Week 35.

We are really starting to get some separation at the top and bottom though now.
The top seven have pulled three points clear of Wolves - well done to Brentford for staying there and climbing up a couple of spots after my gloomy predictions. We'll see if it can last though.

Meanwhile at the bottom, Wigan and Millwall are now six points adrift of Rotherham for the last place of safety. The Latics have found a bit of form but whether it will be enough to bridge that gap is another matter. Millwall, on the other hand, have won just one point in their last five games - just horrific form.



Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Middlesbrough 35 19 9 7 53 24 29 66
2 Derby 35 19 8 8 66 37 29 65
3 Watford 35 20 5 10 70 42 28 65
4 Bournemouth 35 18 9 8 69 38 31 63
5 Norwich 35 18 8 9 66 38 28 62
6 Brentford 35 19 4 12 57 45 12 61
7 Ipswich 35 17 9 9 55 38 17 60
8 Wolves 35 16 9 10 48 42 6 57
9 Nott'm Forest 35 13 11 11 57 50 7 50
10 Blackburn 35 12 12 11 45 45 0 48
11 Sheffield Weds 35 11 13 11 31 34 -3 46
12 Charlton 35 10 15 10 39 44 -5 45
13 Birmingham 35 11 12 12 40 50 -10 45
14 Cardiff 35 11 11 13 42 46 -4 44
15 Leeds 35 12 8 15 38 46 -8 44
16 Huddersfield 35 11 9 15 45 60 -15 42
17 Bolton 35 11 8 16 43 54 -11 41
18 Reading 35 11 8 16 37 53 -16 41
19 Brighton 35 9 13 13 40 43 -3 40
20 Fulham 35 11 6 18 46 59 -13 39
21 Rotherham 35 8 13 14 35 53 -18 37
22 Wigan 35 7 10 18 32 47 -15 31
23 Millwall 35 7 10 18 30 56 -26 31
24 Blackpool 35 4 10 21 29 69 -40 22

Looking at those sides at the bottom both Wigan and Millwall can count themselves a little unlucky to be caught up in the mess they are.
Sorry Blackpool, but as low as the PDO score is, the Tangerines are still the worst team by a country mile in the division.




Position Team Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share Shooting % For Save % PDO
13 Birmingham 473 554 0.46 153 177 0.464 26.15 71.75 97.9
10 Blackburn 538 485 0.526 166 166 0.5 27.11 72.9 100.01
24 Blackpool 389 598 0.394 122 190 0.391 23.78 63.69 87.47
17 Bolton 445 537 0.453 150 182 0.452 28.67 70.32 99
4 Bournemouth 566 417 0.576 202 128 0.612 34.16 70.31 104.47
6 Brentford 511 496 0.507 189 169 0.528 30.16 73.37 103.52
19 Brighton 527 453 0.538 153 129 0.543 26.14 66.66 92.8
14 Cardiff 433 495 0.467 133 144 0.48 31.58 68.05 99.63
12 Charlton 371 546 0.405 126 167 0.43 30.95 73.66 104.61
2 Derby 470 439 0.517 163 145 0.529 40.49 74.48 114.96
20 Fulham 451 538 0.456 143 177 0.447 32.15 66.66 98.82
16 Huddersfield 513 508 0.503 179 171 0.512 25.14 64.9 90.04
7 Ipswich 521 473 0.524 182 134 0.576 30.21 71.63 101.85
15 Leeds 415 536 0.437 120 167 0.418 31.65 72.45 104.1
1 Middlesbrough 519 387 0.573 173 111 0.609 30.64 78.38 109.02
23 Millwall 456 461 0.497 124 162 0.434 24.19 65.43 89.62
5 Norwich 567 335 0.629 191 119 0.616 34.55 68.06 102.61
9 Nott'm Forest 522 457 0.533 159 152 0.511 35.86 67.11 102.97
18 Reading 454 453 0.501 139 158 0.468 26.62 66.45 93.07
21 Rotherham 481 490 0.495 154 157 0.495 22.73 66.24 88.97
11 Sheffield Weds 468 433 0.519 124 132 0.484 25 74.24 99.23
3 Watford 514 499 0.507 193 162 0.544 36.26 74.08 110.33
22 Wigan 420 415 0.503 115 138 0.454 27.83 65.95 93.77
8 Wolves 459 478 0.49 144 160 0.474 33.35 73.75 107.1


Looking at the Shots on Target share we can see there's a whole host of clubs with in the region of 45% (0.45) of the shots on target in each game.
These include the aforementioned Wigan and Millwall, but also Fulham, Bolton, Birmingham, Reading, Charlton and worst of the bunch, Leeds.
So you could easily pick any two out of those to join Blackpool and not go too far wrong.


But if we look at the overall share of shots per game (Corsi or TSR) it becomes very clear that there are two teams which really should be getting relegated - Leeds and Charlton.
I've written about this pair a couple of times and I keep coming back to their fate being ruled by PDO because their performances have held steady at pretty awful. The latest surges enjoyed by both of them probably means they are safe for the season.
So, should either Wigan or Millwall manage to make up the gap, its more likely the very respectable Rotherham who will slip back down a division, or maybe even Fulham.


One note of amusement: I do like how Blackburn have parked themselves right smack in the middle of the Shots on Target vs PDO axes. If you are looking for an "average" team in the Championship, take a trip to Ewood Park.

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