Championship Week 44: With great power comes great responsibility

Biggest news in the Championship this week came on Friday afternoon as the football disciplinary panel announced its decision to dock Rotherham three points for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers won the game in question against Brighton, hence the points deduction, and have also been fined £30,000.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	44	26	7	11	88	49	39	85
2	Bournemouth	44	24	12	8	92	45	47	84
3	Middlesbrough	44	25	9	10	65	33	32	84
4	Norwich	44	24	10	10	83	45	38	82
5	Derby	44	21	13	10	82	50	32	76
6	Ipswich	44	21	12	11	68	50	18	75
7	Brentford	44	21	9	14	73	59	14	72
8	Wolves	44	20	12	12	65	54	11	72
9	Blackburn	44	16	15	13	61	55	6	63
10	Charlton	44	14	18	12	54	56	-2	60
11	Nott'm Forest	44	15	14	15	69	65	4	59
12	Sheffield Weds	44	14	17	13	41	46	-5	59
13	Birmingham	44	14	15	15	52	64	-12	57
14	Cardiff	44	14	14	16	52	58	-6	56
15	Huddersfield	44	13	14	17	56	73	-17	53
16	Leeds	44	14	10	20	48	60	-12	52
17	Bolton	44	13	12	19	54	63	-9	51
18	Fulham	44	13	10	21	56	76	-20	49
19	Reading	43	12	11	20	44	65	-21	47
20	Brighton	44	10	16	18	44	52	-8	46
21	Rotherham	43	10	14	19	43	65	-22	41*
22	Millwall	44	9	13	22	37	69	-32	40
23	Wigan	44	9	12	23	39	60	-21	39
24	Blackpool	44	4	13	27	34	88	-54	25

Earlier this week I was all set to write a post criticising how the panel was obviously hoping for the relegation matters to sort themselves out this weekend before announcing its decision (if possible).
But credit where it’s due, the decision gives a full two weekends (with one midweek game) for the three sides most affected (Rotherham, Millwall and Wigan) to pull themselves together.
This decision will only add fuel to Millers’ manager Steve Evans’ fire that there is a vendetta against him and his club, wishing for them to be relegated.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
5	Derby	44	580	556	0.51	207	182	0.532	39.62	72.53	112.15
1	Watford	44	638	616	0.509	241	201	0.545	36.52	75.62	112.14
3	Middlesbrough	44	633	505	0.556	203	140	0.592	32.01	76.43	108.44
8	Wolves	44	575	612	0.484	184	196	0.484	35.32	72.45	107.78
10	Charlton	44	459	705	0.394	162	210	0.435	33.34	73.33	106.67
2	Bournemouth	44	717	513	0.583	255	151	0.628	36.07	70.2	106.27
4	Norwich	44	715	400	0.641	233	146	0.615	35.62	69.17	104.79
16	Leeds	44	500	686	0.422	149	215	0.409	32.23	72.09	104.32
9	Blackburn	44	663	616	0.518	207	210	0.496	29.47	73.81	103.28
17	Bolton	44	563	690	0.449	191	230	0.454	28.26	72.6	100.86
11	Nott'm Forest	44	651	625	0.51	205	198	0.509	33.65	67.16	100.81
7	Brentford	44	682	604	0.53	250	207	0.547	29.2	71.5	100.7
6	Ipswich	44	642	577	0.527	220	164	0.573	30.91	69.5	100.41
13	Birmingham	44	580	702	0.452	196	229	0.461	26.54	72.04	98.58
14	Cardiff	44	555	606	0.478	164	174	0.485	31.72	66.66	98.37
18	Fulham	44	579	676	0.461	181	232	0.438	30.94	67.23	98.17
12	Sheffield Weds	44	587	536	0.523	163	170	0.489	25.15	72.94	98.09
20	Brighton	44	637	554	0.535	179	169	0.514	24.58	69.23	93.81
19	Reading	43	558	538	0.509	171	191	0.473	25.72	65.96	91.68
23	Wigan	44	526	522	0.502	149	174	0.461	26.18	65.5	91.68
21	Rotherham	43	573	590	0.493	181	194	0.483	23.75	66.49	90.24
22	Millwall	44	580	569	0.505	159	201	0.442	23.28	65.67	88.95
15	Huddersfield	44	640	618	0.509	229	204	0.529	24.45	64.23	88.67
24	Blackpool	44	509	726	0.412	145	236	0.381	23.44	62.72	86.16

While this may act as a good rallying cry for supporters and to help the players create a siege mentality, in reality I’ve witnessed little of that.
I will admit to not being a great fan of the man himself, but Rotherham have been a, give or take, average Championship side bitten by some horrible PDO throughout the season.
Both the shooting and save percentages are well below average – suggesting a substantial amount of bad luck.

Still, with Evans’ anger will come delight from Millwall and Wigan.
However, truth be told both teams face a very difficult task and with Rotherham having a far superior goal difference to Millwall it effectively makes it a two point difference for both sides (Wigan are just one goal better off than Rotherham).
Millwall face Derby and Wolves, Wigan host Wolves before travelling to Brentford. None of which you would label as likely wins.

Could two draws do it for one of these teams?
Potentially, but Rotherham have much the easier run-in; starting with a very tough game against Norwich this weekend, they then complete with much easier (statistically) games against Reading and Leeds. A Yorkshire derby is never something to be sniffed at though.
One win by Rotherham should be enough to see them safe, but stranger things have happened.

At the top, with two games left there are still some very important details to be finalised, not least the two automatic promotion spots.
Middlesbrough’s deserved win at Norwich last week put the cat among the top four pigeons (and my predictions – although to be fair I did say they were capable of doing it, I just didn’t expect it).
And Bournemouth’s last minute lapse at home to Sheffield Wednesday – I did at least pick that one as a potential tough one for the Cherries – means it’s Watford leading by a single point.
Any one of the top four could still claim the title, and again either of the other three could finish second, but it seems obvious now that Watford have the toughest final two games – statistically speaking.
Good job they have that lead.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford		0.509	11 (13)	0.545	6 (6)	112.14	2 (2)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brighton V Watford	Sat 25 Apr	0.535	4	0.514	9	93.81	18
Watford V Sheff Wed	Sat 2 May	0.523	7	0.489	12	98.09	17
Average		0.529	5.50	0.502	10.50	95.95	17.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth		0.583	2 (2)	0.628	1 (1)	106.27	6 (7)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth V Bolton	Sat 25 Apr	0.449	21	0.454	19	100.86	10
Charlton V Bournemouth	Sat 2 May	0.394	24	0.435	22	106.67	5
Average		0.422	22.50	0.445	20.50	103.77	7.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough		0.556	3 (3)	0.592	3 (3)	108.44	3 (4)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Fulham V Middlesbrough	Sat 25 Apr	0.461	19	0.438	21	98.17	16
Middlesbrough V Brighton	Sat 2 May	0.535	4	0.514	9	93.81	18
Average		0.498	11.50	0.476	15.00	95.99	17.00

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich		0.641	1 (1)	0.615	2 (2)	104.79	7 (8)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Rotherham V Norwich	Sat 25 Apr	0.493	16	0.483	15	90.24	21
Norwich V Fulham	Sat 2 May	0.461	19	0.438	21	98.17	16
Average		0.477	17.50	0.461	18.00	94.21	18.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby		0.51	9 (9)	0.532	7 (7)	112.15	1 (1)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Millwall V Derby	Sat 25 Apr	0.505	14	0.442	20	88.95	22
Derby V Reading	Sat 2 May	0.509	12	0.473	16	91.68	19
Average		0.507	13.00	0.458	18.00	90.32	20.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Ipswich		0.527	6 (8)	0.573	4 (4)	100.41	13 (12)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO Rank
Ipswich V Nottm Forest	Sat 25 Apr	0.51	10	0.509	10	100.81	11
Blackburn V Ipswich	Sat 2 May	0.518	8	0.496	11	103.28	9
Average		0.514	9.00	0.503	10.50	102.05	10.00

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brentford		0.53	5 (6)	0.547	5 (5)	100.7	12 (10)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO
Reading V Brentford	Sat 25 Apr	0.509	12	0.473	16	91.68	19
Brentford V Wigan	Sat 2 May	0.502	15	0.461	17	91.68	20
Average		0.506	13.50	0.467	16.50	91.68	19.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves		0.484	17 (17)	0.484	14 (12)	107.78	4 (3)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wigan V Wolves	Sat 25 Apr	0.502	15	0.461	17	91.68	20
Wolves V Millwall	Sat 2 May	0.505	14	0.442	20	88.95	22
Average		0.504	14.50	0.452	18.50	90.32	21.00

Looking at the remaining games one would expect Bournemouth to win both their games, which should be enough to guarantee them one of the top two positions.
That would leave Middlesbrough or even Norwich looking for a Watford slip up.
However I suspect even that may be beyond Norwich’s powers of recovery this season, but would leave the possibility of an East Anglian playoff semi-final that I mooted earlier this season. That would be very tasty indeed.

But that is no sure thing. Wolves and Brentford both have statistically far easier run-ins than Ipswich and either could yet sneak the last playoff place.

	Opp avg shot share	Opp avg shot share rank	Opp avg SoT share	Opp avg SoT share rank	Opp avg PDO	Opp avg PDO rank
Watford	0.529	5.50	0.502	10.50	95.950	17.50
Bournemouth	0.422	22.50	0.445	20.50	103.765	7.50
Middlesbrough	0.498	11.50	0.476	15.00	95.990	17.00
Norwich	0.477	17.50	0.461	18.00	94.205	18.50
Derby	0.507	13.00	0.458	18.00	90.315	20.50
Ipswich	0.514	9.00	0.503	10.50	102.045	10.00
Brentford	0.506	13.50	0.467	16.50	91.680	19.50
Wolves	0.504	14.50	0.452	18.50	90.315	21.00

Finally, it is worth reminding ourselves just how dominant the top eight (and top four in particular) have been this season.
This points accumulation graph does a nice job of showing how the Championship really has split in to four distinct groups of teams - the top four, five to eight, the middle and the bottom three.

It also highlights just how early-on Blackpool, became cut-off from the rest of the league. No group of fans deserves the season the Seasiders have had.

Conference Week 44

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Barnet	44	27	7	10	91	45	46	88
2	Bristol Rvs	44	24	15	5	65	33	32	87
3	Grimsby	44	24	10	10	69	37	32	82
4	Eastleigh	44	22	10	12	83	59	24	76
5	Forest Green	44	21	15	8	76	52	24	75
6	Macclesfield	44	20	14	10	57	45	12	74
7	Woking	44	20	12	12	73	49	24	72
8	Dover Athletic	44	19	9	16	68	57	11	66
9	Halifax	44	17	15	12	58	49	9	66
10	Gateshead	44	17	15	12	64	56	8	66
11	Wrexham	43	15	14	14	50	50	0	59
12	Torquay	44	15	12	17	61	59	2	57
13	Lincoln	44	16	9	19	61	69	-8	57
14	Chester	44	17	6	21	58	73	-15	57
15	Braintree Town	44	17	5	22	52	52	0	56
16	Kidderminster	44	15	11	18	49	57	-8	56
17	Altrincham	44	16	8	20	51	67	-16	56
18	Aldershot	43	14	10	19	49	56	-7	52
19	Southport	44	12	11	21	44	70	-26	47
20	Welling United	44	11	11	22	50	70	-20	44
21	Alfreton Town	44	12	8	24	47	81	-34	44
22	Dartford	44	8	14	22	44	72	-28	38
23	Nuneaton Town	44	10	8	26	34	70	-36	38
24	Telford United	44	9	9	26	55	81	-26	36

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
18	Aldershot	43	368	380	0.492	156	166	0.484	31.4	66.27	97.68
21	Alfreton Town	44	318	530	0.375	127	230	0.356	36.99	64.8	101.79
17	Altrincham	44	492	463	0.515	180	182	0.497	28.33	63.18	91.51
1	Barnet	44	497	367	0.575	226	133	0.63	40.25	66.16	106.41
15	Braintree Town	44	414	380	0.521	146	149	0.495	35.61	65.11	100.72
2	Bristol Rvs	44	470	355	0.57	191	126	0.602	34.04	73.81	107.85
14	Chester	44	452	427	0.514	190	188	0.503	30.53	61.15	91.68
22	Dartford	44	300	493	0.378	137	211	0.394	32.11	65.86	97.97
8	Dover Athletic	44	443	383	0.536	180	158	0.533	37.77	63.9	101.68
4	Eastleigh	44	390	338	0.536	175	146	0.545	47.45	59.58	107.03
5	Forest Green	44	440	413	0.516	203	168	0.547	37.44	69.06	106.5
10	Gateshead	44	397	378	0.512	159	156	0.505	40.26	64.1	104.36
3	Grimsby	44	522	370	0.585	233	147	0.613	29.62	74.83	104.45
9	Halifax	44	456	373	0.55	182	150	0.548	31.88	67.34	99.22
16	Kidderminster	44	469	402	0.538	183	167	0.523	26.77	65.88	92.65
13	Lincoln	44	397	486	0.449	161	212	0.431	37.9	67.47	105.37
6	Macclesfield	44	354	418	0.459	154	155	0.499	36.99	70.97	107.96
23	Nuneaton Town	44	340	461	0.424	136	180	0.43	24.99	61.13	86.12
19	Southport	44	384	445	0.463	148	204	0.421	29.72	65.67	95.39
24	Telford United	44	374	489	0.433	155	218	0.416	35.49	62.83	98.32
12	Torquay	44	475	431	0.524	182	178	0.506	33.5	66.87	100.37
20	Welling United	44	343	433	0.442	133	186	0.417	37.57	62.37	99.93
7	Woking	44	448	344	0.566	206	142	0.592	35.44	65.5	100.95
11	Wrexham	43	383	367	0.511	153	144	0.515	32.67	65.26	97.93

League Two Week 43

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Burton	43	25	10	8	61	35	26	85
2	Shrewsbury	43	25	8	10	65	29	36	83
3	Wycombe	43	22	14	7	64	42	22	80
4	Bury	42	23	7	12	56	39	17	76
5	Southend	42	21	12	9	50	35	15	75
6	Stevenage	43	19	11	13	59	50	9	68
7	Plymouth	43	18	11	14	50	33	17	65
8	Luton	43	17	11	15	49	43	6	62
9	Newport County	43	17	11	15	47	50	-3	62
10	Exeter	43	16	13	14	58	61	-3	61
11	Northampton	43	17	7	19	62	56	6	58
12	Morecambe	43	15	12	16	48	49	-1	57
13	AFC Wimbledon	43	14	14	15	53	57	-4	56
14	Portsmouth	43	13	14	16	49	51	-2	53
15	Dag and Red	43	15	8	20	50	55	-5	53
16	Oxford	43	12	16	15	44	49	-5	52
17	Accrington	43	14	10	19	54	70	-16	52
18	York	43	11	18	14	45	47	-2	51
19	Cambridge	43	12	12	19	56	60	-4	48
20	Mansfield	43	13	9	21	35	55	-20	48
21	Carlisle	43	13	7	23	51	70	-19	46
22	Hartlepool	43	11	8	24	34	63	-29	41
23	Cheltenham	43	9	13	21	39	63	-24	40
24	Tranmere	43	9	12	22	43	60	-17	39

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
17	Accrington	43	444	486	0.478	166	192	0.464	32.51	63.54	96.05
13	AFC Wimbledon	43	436	473	0.48	177	194	0.477	29.94	70.62	100.55
1	Burton	43	465	357	0.566	179	128	0.583	34.09	72.65	106.74
4	Bury	42	438	357	0.551	177	132	0.573	31.63	70.45	102.09
19	Cambridge	43	433	495	0.467	174	180	0.492	32.19	66.66	98.85
21	Carlisle	43	412	536	0.434	150	198	0.431	34	64.66	98.66
23	Cheltenham	43	359	450	0.444	144	196	0.423	27.08	67.88	94.96
15	Dag and Red	43	388	556	0.411	134	230	0.368	37.32	76.09	113.41
10	Exeter	43	450	492	0.478	184	173	0.516	31.51	64.73	96.24
22	Hartlepool	43	370	487	0.432	126	211	0.374	27	70.16	97.16
8	Luton	43	428	493	0.465	162	193	0.456	30.26	77.73	107.99
20	Mansfield	43	439	445	0.497	164	177	0.481	21.34	68.93	90.27
12	Morecambe	43	421	533	0.441	182	190	0.489	26.38	74.22	100.6
9	Newport County	43	427	385	0.526	161	178	0.475	29.2	71.9	101.09
11	Northampton	43	469	411	0.533	192	164	0.539	32.28	65.86	98.14
16	Oxford	43	423	368	0.535	162	138	0.54	27.15	64.5	91.65
7	Plymouth	43	471	422	0.527	173	149	0.537	28.91	77.84	106.76
14	Portsmouth	43	406	420	0.491	171	177	0.491	28.66	71.19	99.85
2	Shrewsbury	43	530	313	0.629	225	125	0.643	28.88	76.81	105.69
5	Southend	42	500	376	0.571	215	147	0.594	23.27	76.19	99.45
6	Stevenage	43	383	383	0.5	169	153	0.525	34.9	67.33	102.23
24	Tranmere	43	402	414	0.493	157	190	0.452	27.39	68.43	95.81
3	Wycombe	43	456	349	0.566	186	132	0.585	34.42	68.19	102.62
18	York	43	521	470	0.526	210	193	0.521	21.42	75.64	97.07

League One Week 43: Three games to go

It’s been a while since I had the chance to look at the lower leagues so apologies for that.
Bristol City’s astronomical PDO has seen them promoted and it’s only a matter of time until they claim the title.
To be fair the red half of Bristol have also been a very good shots team throughout the season, but there have been a handful of teams with consistently better overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share rates.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bristol City	43	27	11	5	86	36	50	92
2	Preston	42	23	13	6	71	36	35	82
3	Milton Keynes Dons	42	23	10	9	84	40	44	79
4	Swindon	41	23	7	11	70	47	23	76
5	Sheffield United	43	19	11	13	63	50	13	68
6	Chesterfield	43	19	10	14	67	52	15	67
7	Rochdale	42	18	6	18	69	57	12	60
8	Fleetwood Town	43	16	11	16	45	48	-3	59
9	Barnsley	43	16	10	17	56	59	-3	58
10	Peterboro	43	17	7	19	47	51	-4	58
11	Bradford	42	15	12	15	51	53	-2	57
12	Doncaster	42	15	12	15	52	55	-3	57
13	Gillingham	43	14	14	15	60	63	-3	56
14	Oldham	43	14	13	16	53	64	-11	55
15	Walsall	42	13	15	14	42	42	0	54
16	Coventry	43	12	15	16	46	56	-10	51
17	Scunthorpe	42	13	12	17	55	66	-11	51
18	Port Vale	43	14	8	21	50	60	-10	50
19	Crewe	43	13	9	21	39	72	-33	48
20	Leyton Orient	42	12	11	19	55	59	-4	47
21	Notts County	42	11	14	17	41	54	-13	47
22	Crawley Town	43	12	11	20	47	73	-26	47
23	Colchester	42	12	8	22	51	72	-21	44
24	Yeovil	43	9	10	24	33	68	-35	37

The three point gap should be enough to see Preston secure the second automatic promotion spot and being second in both shot share and shots on target share it is, remarkably, exactly where they “deserve” to finish.
You can’t help but feel sorry for MK Dons. Third place and probably being left to the volatility of the playoffs, but they are far and away the best team in both shot share and shots on target share.
It’s tough to swallow a season like that not ending in promotion.
It is, however, hard to fault Chesterfield, Sheffield United and Swindon being in the playoff places. Doncaster especially so can consider themselves a bit unfortunate not to be there or thereabouts.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
9	Barnsley	43	406	490	0.453	161	217	0.426	34.79	72.82	107.61
11	Bradford	42	437	414	0.513	191	159	0.546	26.71	66.68	93.39
1	Bristol City	43	537	448	0.545	223	171	0.566	38.56	78.95	117.51
6	Chesterfield	43	520	398	0.566	214	182	0.54	31.32	71.44	102.76
23	Colchester	42	445	496	0.473	194	213	0.477	26.27	66.2	92.47
16	Coventry	43	442	416	0.515	170	163	0.511	27.06	65.63	92.68
22	Crawley Town	43	340	615	0.356	120	264	0.313	39.16	72.35	111.5
19	Crewe	43	336	620	0.351	161	260	0.382	24.23	72.31	96.55
12	Doncaster	42	499	399	0.556	210	163	0.563	24.77	66.26	91.02
8	Fleetwood Town	43	438	564	0.437	180	199	0.475	24.99	75.88	100.87
13	Gillingham	43	402	550	0.422	165	220	0.429	36.36	71.36	107.73
20	Leyton Orient	42	472	416	0.532	216	175	0.553	25.46	66.27	91.73
3	Milton Keynes Dons	42	610	340	0.642	260	140	0.65	32.32	71.45	103.77
21	Notts County	42	428	589	0.421	179	235	0.432	22.91	77.02	99.92
14	Oldham	43	440	422	0.51	175	177	0.497	30.3	63.82	94.12
10	Peterboro	43	469	478	0.495	189	189	0.5	24.86	73.03	97.88
18	Port Vale	43	455	513	0.47	184	223	0.452	27.18	73.09	100.27
2	Preston	42	573	373	0.606	231	132	0.636	30.75	72.73	103.47
7	Rochdale	42	436	421	0.509	186	179	0.51	37.1	68.15	105.25
17	Scunthorpe	42	443	503	0.468	190	218	0.466	28.94	69.73	98.67
5	Sheffield United	43	484	402	0.546	194	153	0.559	32.46	67.32	99.79
4	Swindon	41	531	352	0.601	231	152	0.603	30.31	69.09	99.4
15	Walsall	42	478	409	0.539	159	178	0.472	26.42	76.41	102.83
24	Yeovil	43	437	430	0.504	156	177	0.468	21.16	61.58	82.74

Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Leyton Orient’s relegation fight is one of the most unwarranted I can think of; well above 50% in both shot share and shots on target share, its been a brutal PDO run that has left them battling the drop.

Already relegated Yeovil can, to some extent at least, consider themselves unlucky as well. But their PDO slump is exacerbated by their poor shot numbers – in this instance not the share, but the raw quantity.
Yeovil have taken the eighth fewest shots and the second fewest shots on target. When you don’t have the sheer number of shots to your name it makes things a lot more volatile and means accidents, isolated poor play or just bad luck can have a much more significant influence.
I suspect this plays a big part in Yeovil’s position.

One can only imagine how bad Crawley’s season would have been without a mammoth PDO boost. It’s quite remarkable that with three games to play they have a decent chance at staying up; breath-taking indeed.
The other relegation places are going to be quite the scrap and although I have my preferences of who “should” stay up, when it gets this close, there’s not much you can predict safely.