Sunday 5 April 2015

Championship Week 40: The top eight divide

What fun round 40 was - with two games pitting top eight contenders against each other.A four point gap has now opened out between the top four and the next four.
It's probably fair to say that we're now looking at a case of two from the top four for automatic promotion (and someone, somewhere, somehow winning the title too) with another two from the remaining four teams to take the bottom two playoff spots alongside those who miss out on automatic promotion.
In fact, this post from Colin Trainor @colinttrainor highlights that point very nicely.

Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Middlesbrough 40 22 9 9 60 30 30 75
2 Bournemouth 40 21 11 8 83 41 42 74
3 Norwich 40 21 10 9 77 43 34 73
4 Watford 40 22 7 11 80 48 32 73
5 Brentford 40 21 6 13 68 53 15 69
6 Derby 40 19 11 10 71 45 26 68
7 Ipswich 40 19 11 10 60 44 16 68
8 Wolverhampton Wanderers 40 19 11 10 58 46 12 68
9 Nottingham Forest 40 15 12 13 63 56 7 57
10 Blackburn 40 15 12 13 54 50 4 57
11 Charlton 40 13 15 12 49 52 -3 54
12 Sheffield Wednesday 40 13 15 12 37 41 -4 54
13 Cardiff 40 13 13 14 49 51 -2 52
14 Leeds 40 14 10 16 43 50 -7 52
15 Birmingham 39 12 14 13 45 56 -11 50
16 Bolton 40 12 10 18 47 58 -11 46
17 Brighton 40 10 15 15 43 47 -4 45
18 Huddersfield 40 11 12 17 49 68 -19 45
19 Reading 39 12 9 18 43 62 -19 45
20 Fulham 40 12 7 21 51 72 -21 43
21 Rotherham 40 9 13 18 41 62 -21 40
22 Millwall 40 8 12 20 35 65 -30 36
23 Wigan 40 8 11 21 35 53 -18 35
24 Blackpool 40 4 12 24 31 79 -48 24



I made a lot of Eddie Howe's acquisition of Kenwyne Jones in my last post, wondering how he would fit in. The one scenario I failed to mention was set pieces.
Jones has been very dangerous for Cardiff from deadball situations this season, thanks in no small part to Peter Whittingham's wonderful left foot.
This may become a critical use for Bournemouth too.
Thus, with Ipswich leading 1-0 late in the second half on came Jones. Bournemouth shortly after won a corner, Jones beat his man to the near post area of the six yard box and with his first touch nodded in a powerful equaliser.

Position Team Played Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share Shooting % For Save % PDO
15 Birmingham 39 524 610 0.462 171 195 0.467 26.32 71.28 97.6
10 Blackburn 40 615 541 0.532 190 186 0.505 28.42 73.12 101.54
24 Blackpool 40 462 672 0.407 138 218 0.388 22.46 63.76 86.23
17 Bolton 40 505 622 0.448 175 205 0.461 26.86 71.71 98.56
1 Bournemouth 40 663 472 0.584 237 140 0.629 35.02 70.71 105.74
7 Brentford 40 601 559 0.518 224 192 0.538 30.36 72.4 102.75
16 Brighton 40 586 521 0.529 170 155 0.523 25.29 69.68 94.97
14 Cardiff 40 501 558 0.473 153 158 0.492 32.03 67.72 99.75
11 Charlton 40 420 637 0.397 145 189 0.434 33.79 72.49 106.28
5 Derby 40 534 495 0.519 187 164 0.533 37.97 72.56 110.53
20 Fulham 40 533 632 0.458 167 220 0.432 30.54 67.27 97.81
18 Huddersfield 40 583 568 0.507 209 192 0.521 23.44 64.58 88.03
6 Ipswich 40 591 537 0.524 203 153 0.57 29.56 71.24 100.8
13 Leeds 40 465 629 0.425 136 194 0.412 31.62 74.23 105.84
3 Middlesbrough 40 578 452 0.561 187 130 0.59 32.09 76.92 109.01
23 Millwall 40 528 526 0.501 141 186 0.431 24.82 65.05 89.88
4 Norwich 40 643 376 0.631 215 138 0.609 35.81 68.84 104.65
9 Nott'm Forest 40 582 541 0.518 179 170 0.513 35.2 67.06 102.25
19 Reading 39 499 499 0.5 158 181 0.466 27.22 65.75 92.96
21 Rotherham 40 541 550 0.496 169 181 0.483 24.26 65.75 90.01
12 Sheffield Weds 40 544 477 0.533 148 153 0.492 25 73.2 98.2
2 Watford 40 573 566 0.503 215 182 0.542 37.21 73.63 110.84
22 Wigan 40 488 473 0.508 134 157 0.46 26.12 66.24 92.36
8 Wolves 40 523 566 0.48 170 182 0.483 34.12 74.73 108.84

It's probably worth noting that Bournemouth did some serious damage to Ipswich's shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share with that game - much as they did to Middlesbrough the week before.
The circumstances were different (Ipswich's early goal meaning they could afford to sit back more and limit their attacking ambitions) but still Bournemouth are showing that they can boss matches against the top teams in the league - a good sign should they find themselves in the Premier League or the playoffs, come the evening of May 2.


In contrast, the other match-up between Derby and Watford turned in to a wild one.
Watford suffered their seventh sending-off (and conceded an equaliser from the suubsequent penalty) of the season, but I almost wonder if this really a bother to them. They've won so many points from being a man down it really is amazing.
I've mentioned this earlier in the season, but the obvious effects of being a man down so often have also hit Watford's shot metrics - the second half on Friday being a case in point.


However, Derby's woeful, wasteful shooting meant that despite dominating the shot share, it was the visitors who managed more shots on target.
Derby's collapse over the last few weeks really has been quite spectacular and the Rams have gone from title contenders to scrapping to even make the playoffs. According to the shot metrics this position is pretty much exactly where they should be, but the optics of a rather rapid PDO fall are no less jarring in real life.


Week 41 brings yet another top eight clash in Middlesbrough vs Watford. How much will Watford's 10-man exertions on Friday evening have exhausted the Hornets? Middlesbrough enjoyed a straightforward, if unspectacular, win over Wigan earlier that afternoon which could leave them much fresher.
With a tip of the hat to Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, that game at the Riverside Stadium is the one to watch in week 41.

Sadly though, this glut of all-top eight games in recent weeks means there will be precious few in the closing fixtures. And the Championship run-in will be all the poorer for it.


At the other end of the table, Blackpool's fate can be sealed this week. If the Seasiders fail to beat Reading on Tuesday night they will be officially relegated. Although it could all be academic at that point if Rotherham defeat Brighton on Monday afternoon. Millwall and Wigan are at least giving themselves some sort of chance, but its still a pretty substantial gap to make up.

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