Championship Week 44: With great power comes great responsibility

Biggest news in the Championship this week came on Friday afternoon as the football disciplinary panel announced its decision to dock Rotherham three points for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers won the game in question against Brighton, hence the points deduction, and have also been fined £30,000.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	44	26	7	11	88	49	39	85
2	Bournemouth	44	24	12	8	92	45	47	84
3	Middlesbrough	44	25	9	10	65	33	32	84
4	Norwich	44	24	10	10	83	45	38	82
5	Derby	44	21	13	10	82	50	32	76
6	Ipswich	44	21	12	11	68	50	18	75
7	Brentford	44	21	9	14	73	59	14	72
8	Wolves	44	20	12	12	65	54	11	72
9	Blackburn	44	16	15	13	61	55	6	63
10	Charlton	44	14	18	12	54	56	-2	60
11	Nott'm Forest	44	15	14	15	69	65	4	59
12	Sheffield Weds	44	14	17	13	41	46	-5	59
13	Birmingham	44	14	15	15	52	64	-12	57
14	Cardiff	44	14	14	16	52	58	-6	56
15	Huddersfield	44	13	14	17	56	73	-17	53
16	Leeds	44	14	10	20	48	60	-12	52
17	Bolton	44	13	12	19	54	63	-9	51
18	Fulham	44	13	10	21	56	76	-20	49
19	Reading	43	12	11	20	44	65	-21	47
20	Brighton	44	10	16	18	44	52	-8	46
21	Rotherham	43	10	14	19	43	65	-22	41*
22	Millwall	44	9	13	22	37	69	-32	40
23	Wigan	44	9	12	23	39	60	-21	39
24	Blackpool	44	4	13	27	34	88	-54	25

Earlier this week I was all set to write a post criticising how the panel was obviously hoping for the relegation matters to sort themselves out this weekend before announcing its decision (if possible).
But credit where it’s due, the decision gives a full two weekends (with one midweek game) for the three sides most affected (Rotherham, Millwall and Wigan) to pull themselves together.
This decision will only add fuel to Millers’ manager Steve Evans’ fire that there is a vendetta against him and his club, wishing for them to be relegated.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
5	Derby	44	580	556	0.51	207	182	0.532	39.62	72.53	112.15
1	Watford	44	638	616	0.509	241	201	0.545	36.52	75.62	112.14
3	Middlesbrough	44	633	505	0.556	203	140	0.592	32.01	76.43	108.44
8	Wolves	44	575	612	0.484	184	196	0.484	35.32	72.45	107.78
10	Charlton	44	459	705	0.394	162	210	0.435	33.34	73.33	106.67
2	Bournemouth	44	717	513	0.583	255	151	0.628	36.07	70.2	106.27
4	Norwich	44	715	400	0.641	233	146	0.615	35.62	69.17	104.79
16	Leeds	44	500	686	0.422	149	215	0.409	32.23	72.09	104.32
9	Blackburn	44	663	616	0.518	207	210	0.496	29.47	73.81	103.28
17	Bolton	44	563	690	0.449	191	230	0.454	28.26	72.6	100.86
11	Nott'm Forest	44	651	625	0.51	205	198	0.509	33.65	67.16	100.81
7	Brentford	44	682	604	0.53	250	207	0.547	29.2	71.5	100.7
6	Ipswich	44	642	577	0.527	220	164	0.573	30.91	69.5	100.41
13	Birmingham	44	580	702	0.452	196	229	0.461	26.54	72.04	98.58
14	Cardiff	44	555	606	0.478	164	174	0.485	31.72	66.66	98.37
18	Fulham	44	579	676	0.461	181	232	0.438	30.94	67.23	98.17
12	Sheffield Weds	44	587	536	0.523	163	170	0.489	25.15	72.94	98.09
20	Brighton	44	637	554	0.535	179	169	0.514	24.58	69.23	93.81
19	Reading	43	558	538	0.509	171	191	0.473	25.72	65.96	91.68
23	Wigan	44	526	522	0.502	149	174	0.461	26.18	65.5	91.68
21	Rotherham	43	573	590	0.493	181	194	0.483	23.75	66.49	90.24
22	Millwall	44	580	569	0.505	159	201	0.442	23.28	65.67	88.95
15	Huddersfield	44	640	618	0.509	229	204	0.529	24.45	64.23	88.67
24	Blackpool	44	509	726	0.412	145	236	0.381	23.44	62.72	86.16

While this may act as a good rallying cry for supporters and to help the players create a siege mentality, in reality I’ve witnessed little of that.
I will admit to not being a great fan of the man himself, but Rotherham have been a, give or take, average Championship side bitten by some horrible PDO throughout the season.
Both the shooting and save percentages are well below average – suggesting a substantial amount of bad luck.

Still, with Evans’ anger will come delight from Millwall and Wigan.
However, truth be told both teams face a very difficult task and with Rotherham having a far superior goal difference to Millwall it effectively makes it a two point difference for both sides (Wigan are just one goal better off than Rotherham).
Millwall face Derby and Wolves, Wigan host Wolves before travelling to Brentford. None of which you would label as likely wins.

Could two draws do it for one of these teams?
Potentially, but Rotherham have much the easier run-in; starting with a very tough game against Norwich this weekend, they then complete with much easier (statistically) games against Reading and Leeds. A Yorkshire derby is never something to be sniffed at though.
One win by Rotherham should be enough to see them safe, but stranger things have happened.

At the top, with two games left there are still some very important details to be finalised, not least the two automatic promotion spots.
Middlesbrough’s deserved win at Norwich last week put the cat among the top four pigeons (and my predictions – although to be fair I did say they were capable of doing it, I just didn’t expect it).
And Bournemouth’s last minute lapse at home to Sheffield Wednesday – I did at least pick that one as a potential tough one for the Cherries – means it’s Watford leading by a single point.
Any one of the top four could still claim the title, and again either of the other three could finish second, but it seems obvious now that Watford have the toughest final two games – statistically speaking.
Good job they have that lead.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford		0.509	11 (13)	0.545	6 (6)	112.14	2 (2)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brighton V Watford	Sat 25 Apr	0.535	4	0.514	9	93.81	18
Watford V Sheff Wed	Sat 2 May	0.523	7	0.489	12	98.09	17
Average		0.529	5.50	0.502	10.50	95.95	17.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth		0.583	2 (2)	0.628	1 (1)	106.27	6 (7)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth V Bolton	Sat 25 Apr	0.449	21	0.454	19	100.86	10
Charlton V Bournemouth	Sat 2 May	0.394	24	0.435	22	106.67	5
Average		0.422	22.50	0.445	20.50	103.77	7.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough		0.556	3 (3)	0.592	3 (3)	108.44	3 (4)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Fulham V Middlesbrough	Sat 25 Apr	0.461	19	0.438	21	98.17	16
Middlesbrough V Brighton	Sat 2 May	0.535	4	0.514	9	93.81	18
Average		0.498	11.50	0.476	15.00	95.99	17.00

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich		0.641	1 (1)	0.615	2 (2)	104.79	7 (8)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Rotherham V Norwich	Sat 25 Apr	0.493	16	0.483	15	90.24	21
Norwich V Fulham	Sat 2 May	0.461	19	0.438	21	98.17	16
Average		0.477	17.50	0.461	18.00	94.21	18.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby		0.51	9 (9)	0.532	7 (7)	112.15	1 (1)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Millwall V Derby	Sat 25 Apr	0.505	14	0.442	20	88.95	22
Derby V Reading	Sat 2 May	0.509	12	0.473	16	91.68	19
Average		0.507	13.00	0.458	18.00	90.32	20.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Ipswich		0.527	6 (8)	0.573	4 (4)	100.41	13 (12)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO Rank
Ipswich V Nottm Forest	Sat 25 Apr	0.51	10	0.509	10	100.81	11
Blackburn V Ipswich	Sat 2 May	0.518	8	0.496	11	103.28	9
Average		0.514	9.00	0.503	10.50	102.05	10.00

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brentford		0.53	5 (6)	0.547	5 (5)	100.7	12 (10)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO
Reading V Brentford	Sat 25 Apr	0.509	12	0.473	16	91.68	19
Brentford V Wigan	Sat 2 May	0.502	15	0.461	17	91.68	20
Average		0.506	13.50	0.467	16.50	91.68	19.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves		0.484	17 (17)	0.484	14 (12)	107.78	4 (3)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wigan V Wolves	Sat 25 Apr	0.502	15	0.461	17	91.68	20
Wolves V Millwall	Sat 2 May	0.505	14	0.442	20	88.95	22
Average		0.504	14.50	0.452	18.50	90.32	21.00

Looking at the remaining games one would expect Bournemouth to win both their games, which should be enough to guarantee them one of the top two positions.
That would leave Middlesbrough or even Norwich looking for a Watford slip up.
However I suspect even that may be beyond Norwich’s powers of recovery this season, but would leave the possibility of an East Anglian playoff semi-final that I mooted earlier this season. That would be very tasty indeed.

But that is no sure thing. Wolves and Brentford both have statistically far easier run-ins than Ipswich and either could yet sneak the last playoff place.

	Opp avg shot share	Opp avg shot share rank	Opp avg SoT share	Opp avg SoT share rank	Opp avg PDO	Opp avg PDO rank
Watford	0.529	5.50	0.502	10.50	95.950	17.50
Bournemouth	0.422	22.50	0.445	20.50	103.765	7.50
Middlesbrough	0.498	11.50	0.476	15.00	95.990	17.00
Norwich	0.477	17.50	0.461	18.00	94.205	18.50
Derby	0.507	13.00	0.458	18.00	90.315	20.50
Ipswich	0.514	9.00	0.503	10.50	102.045	10.00
Brentford	0.506	13.50	0.467	16.50	91.680	19.50
Wolves	0.504	14.50	0.452	18.50	90.315	21.00

Finally, it is worth reminding ourselves just how dominant the top eight (and top four in particular) have been this season.
This points accumulation graph does a nice job of showing how the Championship really has split in to four distinct groups of teams - the top four, five to eight, the middle and the bottom three.

It also highlights just how early-on Blackpool, became cut-off from the rest of the league. No group of fans deserves the season the Seasiders have had.