Friday 8 May 2015

Championship Week 46: The beginning of the end

Well that was quite an end to the Championship season to say the least.
It seems all the excitement that left the title and relegation races in the final few weeks fell in to the playoff race on the final day of the season.
That was quite some experience watching those four games go down to the last goal to decide the final two playoff places.

Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Bournemouth 46 26 12 8 98 45 53 90
2 Watford 46 27 8 11 91 50 41 89
3 Norwich 46 25 11 10 88 48 40 86
4 Middlesbrough 46 25 10 11 68 37 31 85
5 Brentford 46 23 9 14 78 59 19 78
6 Ipswich 46 22 12 12 72 54 18 78
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 22 12 12 70 56 14 78
8 Derby 46 21 14 11 85 56 29 77
9 Blackburn 46 17 16 13 66 59 7 67
10 Birmingham 46 16 15 15 54 64 -10 63
11 Cardiff 46 16 14 16 57 61 -4 62
12 Charlton 46 14 18 14 54 60 -6 60
13 Sheffield Wednesday 46 14 18 14 43 49 -6 60
14 Nottingham Forest 46 15 14 17 71 69 2 59
15 Leeds 46 15 11 20 50 61 -11 56
16 Huddersfield 46* 13 15 17 58 75 -17 54
17 Fulham 46 14 10 22 62 83 -21 52
18 Bolton 46 13 12 21 54 67 -13 51
19 Reading 46 13 11 22 48 69 -21 50
20 Brighton 46 10 17 19 44 54 -10 47
21 Rotherham 46 11 16 19 46 67 -21 46
22 Millwall 46 9 14 23 42 76 -34 41
23 Wigan 46 9 12 25 39 64 -25 39
24 Blackpool 46* 4 13 28 36 91 -55 25


Of course the headline from most of the media was what a complete collapse to Derby’s season – but of those four teams it should really be focused on Ipswich (and to a lesser extent Brentford) who consistently improved as the season went on.
I pointed out throughout the season that Derby’s lofty perch was acquired by a probably unsustainable PDO and thus it proved – even if it did take a little while to come back down to almost earth.

Position Team Played Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share Shooting % For Save % PDO
10 Birmingham 46 614 724 0.459 204 235 0.465 26.47 72.77 99.24
9 Blackburn 46 694 650 0.516 217 219 0.498 30.41 73.06 103.47
24 Blackpool 46* 528 746 0.414 154 245 0.386 23.38 62.86 86.23
18 Bolton 46 584 728 0.445 194 243 0.444 27.84 72.43 100.26
1 Bournemouth 46 767 528 0.592 270 154 0.637 36.3 70.78 107.08
5 Brentford 46 710 632 0.529 266 215 0.553 29.32 72.56 101.88
20 Brighton 46 663 579 0.534 185 179 0.508 23.78 69.83 93.62
11 Cardiff 46 577 632 0.477 173 183 0.486 32.95 66.67 99.61
12 Charlton 46 475 751 0.387 168 220 0.433 32.14 72.73 104.87
8 Derby 46 602 584 0.508 215 196 0.523 39.53 71.43 110.96
17 Fulham 46 601 712 0.458 193 246 0.44 32.12 66.26 98.38
16 Huddersfield 46* 662 637 0.51 237 212 0.528 24.47 64.62 89.1
6 Ipswich 46 675 605 0.527 228 174 0.567 31.58 68.97 100.54
15 Leeds 46 529 706 0.428 158 218 0.42 31.65 72.02 103.66
4 Middlesbrough 46 663 532 0.555 214 150 0.588 31.78 75.33 107.11
22 Millwall 46 610 601 0.504 171 217 0.441 24.56 64.98 89.54
3 Norwich 46 740 431 0.632 243 154 0.612 36.21 68.83 105.05
14 Nottingham Forest 46 673 649 0.509 213 205 0.51 33.33 66.34 99.67
19 Reading 46 599 574 0.511 185 204 0.476 25.95 66.18 92.12
21 Rotherham 46 618 618 0.5 189 203 0.482 24.34 67 91.33
13 Sheffield Wednesday 46 600 568 0.514 166 181 0.478 25.9 72.93 98.83
2 Watford 46 668 632 0.514 252 206 0.55 36.11 75.73 111.84
23 Wigan 46 547 539 0.504 155 186 0.455 25.16 65.59 90.75
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 598 641 0.483 198 203 0.494 35.35 72.41 107.77

Indeed, one wonders how Derby’s season would have progressed had the Rams only enjoyed league average (100) PDO all season long.
Yes, there may be some talent effects in PDO, but considering that a 100 PDO would probably have seen Derby hovering somewhere between 13th (their overall shot share) and where they actually finished in 8th, which also matched their shots on target ranking.



In fact Ipswich, with a give-or-take league average only finished sixth despite having the sixth highest overall shot share and fourth highest shots on target share.
Mick McCarthy should be pleased with the way he brought his team together.
From a decidedly slow start the team consistently improved its shots and shots on target share to finish the season well above 50% and 55% respectively.


Brentford too had a slow start but again slowly and steadily improved throughout the season.
Yes their shot stats are boosted somewhat by the massacre of Blackpool, but Mark Warburton and the players should be congratulated for not getting distracted by the announcement over the manager’s future near the end of the season.
Yes, it is more than likely the right decision and you would expect the manager and players to maintain a professional approach, but these sorts of changes can have an impact in unexpected ways.
In this case, it seems to have motivated Warburton and the squad as since then they have continued to improve in the shot metrics.


My biggest concern for the playoffs is Middlesbrough.
I was a big fan of Middlesbrough and their excellent shot metrics early in the season, but it is impossible not to notice their deteriorating metrics since that great start.
They still have very good numbers but the slide is undeniable and not a good trend to be owning. I wouldn’t expect them to maintain the early season score at up around 65%+, but you would expect it to flatten out somewhere – continuing its descent is worrying.


So that leaves Norwich as the only remaining playoff team to look at. And the Canaries have been exemplary all season.
Top in shot share and second in shots on target share, the only thing to scupper Norwich’s season was some awful PDO in the first half of the season.
Local derbies are horrible to predict, so I’m not going to.
But on the balance of the season Norwich are the team which deserve to win the playoffs and return immediately to the Premier League.



Looking at the season as a whole, it is noticeable how quickly the top eight broke clear from the rest of the league and how at the midway stage the bottom three teams were also decided.


Considering the shot metrics it is remarkable how quickly these settled down in to pretty consistent measures that by-and-large lasted the length of the season: Norwich, Bournemouth and Middlesbrough at the top; Blackpool, Leeds and Charlton at the bottom.




By contrast PDO remained more volatile throughout the season with a few teams witnessing remarkable fluxes all the way through – Charlton and Derby to name just two.


Let’s see which of these factors had a stronger impact on the final league table.
This season has appeared something of a volatile one, particularly for the lower 16 teams, as it were.
Indeed, the overall shot share produces a rather relationship (if reasonably weak) to points gained by teams – an r2 value of 0.322.


When we then look at shots on target share we get a much greater link – here we see an r2 value of 0.6848.



But the strongest relationship involves PDO – a mighty r2 score of 0.7555.
The powerful hold that PDO had this season was reflected in some of those teams with poor shot numbers finishing much higher up in the final table and the reverse – good shots teams near the bottom of the table.


It sure was a fun season and I’m looking forward to the playoffs now.


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